Solar Prospecting
It turns out that solar power is keeping the BLM busy lately. Since 2006 a tremendous land rush in the deserts of the Southwest has developed, and it’s taking a very novel form. Rather than following the ancient tradition of looking for valuable resources in or on the land–ore, petroleum, water, etc.–they’re looking for value coming toward the land. That is, photons blasting towards it from the Sun. The land is just a place to stick the panels or mirrors that’s flat and preferably conveniently near a road and a transmission line. Whether the land is physically like the moon or the Hanging Gardens of Babylon is irrelevant. In one sense, land on the more moon-like end of the spectrum is better. If it lacks alternate value, there’s less competition for it.
Except for one other form of competition: other solar prospectors. Here the competition is very intense. It’s interesting that Goldman Sachs is buying up a lot of this desert through an investment subsidiary called Solar Investments. Obviously these bankers aren’t about to put on hard hats and gloves and get busy building solar plants. Nor are they barefoot eco-hippies looking to save the world. They’re East Coast speculators. And the fact that the “smart money” (ahem) is moving in to buy huge swathes of desert suggests that solar power is finally real. It also suggests a big-ass bubble is inflating. It recalls a folksy piece of wisdom: the pioneers get the arrows, the settlers get the land. The presumed first mover advantage may ultimately destroy a lot of wealth. This is the essence of speculation.
It is happening now, and it will be transformative. It is the harbinger of major economic and cultural change. This virtually worthless land has abruptly become a hot commodity. I just went camping in Monument Valley and drove through desert all the way there and back. I can tell you, there is a lot of room for solar plants, and not just on BLM land. Some of these dusty little towns are going to get flush. And I wonder if the Navajo, Hopi or other tribes that got screwed out of the then valuable land in the 19th century, and literally force-marched into the deserts to eke out a marginal living, will suddenly find themselves sitting on prime real estate. That would be an incredible historical irony and a super business opportunity, one that’s healthier and a lot classier than casinos.